Individual tree diameter increment and mortality models for medium and rich forest in Dong Nai Culture and Nature Reserve
Keywords:
Modeling individual tree growth, logistic regression models, tropical forest, survival probabilitAbstract
Individual tree diameter increment and mortality models constitute an
individual-tree growth model which can be used to predict stand yield and
forest dynamic. Being able to predict tree diameter growth and the survival
probability provides significant insights into forest management decision
support. In this study, we used data from permanent sample plots to
develop an individual tree growth and mortality models for the medium
forest and the rich forest in Dong Nai Culture and Nature Reserve.
Diameter increment equations were fitted by nonlinear models, while
logistic regression models were used to estimate individual tree survival
probability based on tree tree size, tree quality, competition, and relative
position of trees in stands. The resulting models showed that the main
determinants of tree growth were shown to be tree size variables (diameter
at breast height: DBH) and tree quality. Specifically, with increasing D5-years diameter growth of a given tree increases and approach asymptotes.
After reaching a peak, 5-years diameter growth decrease and approaches
zero. During the five-year period, the observed trees died were 10.94% for
the rich forest and 15.67% for the medium forest. Logistic regression
analysis revealed that mortality rate were affected by DBH, distance
dependent competition indices and tree quality. Moreover, the resulting
models also showed that trees usually have relatively high mortality in the
early stages. As trees increase in DBH, survival probability increases and
becomes stable over the middle of the size range. At older stages, survival
probability decreases again. Finally, these results suggest that both growth
and mortality rates were affected by tree quality. For instance, diameter
increment and survial rate in medium quality and bad quality are
significantly lower than good quality trees. Our findings thus appear to
support the critical assumption that tree size (DBH), tree quality and
competition index can be used to predict DBH growth and survival
probability of individual tree for complex stands of tropical forest.
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