Impact of climate change on forest fire risk in the Northwest Vietnam

Abstract

In the context of climate change is happening more and more powerful and complex, Northwest is one of the most affected areas of the country due to the complex terrain and level of development is low, less adaptable than the national average level. This study aims to elucidate the effects of climate change on fire risk in the Northwest. Results have identified have identified climate index reflects Qi fire risk for the North
West region: Qi = Ki*Ti*abs(Ri - 100)^0.3, while the number of days at risk high fire is determined according to the following equation: Snc45 = 67.245*Qi + 0.603, with R2= 0.5998. Average number of days for the North West have a high risk of wildfires will increase from 61 days/year in the period 2000 to 80 days/year in the period 2090, so nearly one century after several days of high fire risk has increased by about 20
days/year. At the time of 2090, Son La province has the highest forest fire danger with 101.8 days/year in, second position is Hoa Binh province with 77.4 days/year; Dien Bien 3rd with 70.7 days/year and Lai Chau province has the lowest fire risk with 55.2 days/year. In the four provinces of Hoa Binh province is always fire season began in early November at the latest and Son La provinces have always been fire season starts
earlier and ends later: starting in October and ending in early 4 every year. A number of solutions to mitigate the impact of climate change on fire risk in the Northwest was studied using the proposed priority as follows: (1) Solutions Group I: Propaganda, higher education community awareness of fire prevention work; (2) Solutions II: capacity building at the local fire prevention; (3) Solutions Group III: Promote the application of silvicultural measures to enhance the effectiveness of fire prevention work.