DEVELOPING A METHOD FOR INTERPOLATING THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS USED IN FOREST FIRE FORECAST

Abstract

Understanding the climatic and environmental factors that affect fire behaviour is important in predicting
danger and fire risk.
Using long term data from 158 national meteorological stations across Vietnam it was possible, using
multivariate statistical methods, to determine the principle meteorological factors to predict the potential for
fire along longitudinal, latitudinal, and elevation gradients.
The principle determinant of fire prediction was temperature regardless of longitude, latitude or altitude,
whereas humidity and rainfall were less useful determinants.
It was possible to develop a set of equations to relate these meteorological factors with longitude, latitude
and altitude by month for each of three regions of the country; northern region (>19
o
N), central region
(from 13
o
to 19
o
N) and southern region (< 13
o
N).